Recession on the way, says Gittins
Tuesday, 17 June 2008
There's a very interesting column in the Sydney Morning Herald at the moment by economics editor Ross Gittins. He sees a sharp recession on the way in all the data. Gittins is probably the closest thing to an economic guru in the form of a journalist that Australia has. He's often admitted in the past, that predictions are unreliable, but his are as good as anyone's.
And he makes a very convincing argument.
"The evidence that the economy is already slowing quite sharply is now strong," Gittins says. "Retail turnover has shown negligible growth in the first four months of this year.
"In trend terms, approvals for the construction of new private dwellings have fallen each month since November. Similarly, the number of loans approved for owner-occupied homes has fallen each month since November.
"In the three months to April, the level of business credit grew at an annualised rate of 5 per cent, compared with 25 per cent in the three months to December. National Australia Bank's index of business confidence has been falling for six months, though it recovered a little in May."
And if history is any guide, an economic downturn is extremely bad news for the IT jobs market. Even a slight downturn has previously left this market reeling. A sharp one will be very painful indeed.
Time to start saving a portion of your income, my friends.
Read the full story in the SMH.
Paul Knapp (editor@brainbox.com.au)
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Article in the Herald-Sun yesterday...Discussed concern about the welfare of international students in Australia. Inlight of the fact that, whilst Australian Universities are using agencies to lure students, their exists no concern for the individual students walfare. You guessed it! They use agencies overseas to recruit studnet's into Australian Universities. Yet there is given little regard for their walfare. Hopefully this is for public interest!?!, however I doubt it! D, 06/17/2008 01:35:27 AM Economy ReportsWith economy dooms and glooms on way Dr gloomyshoe predict happy day. US economy highly sick greedy citizen's eats resource. Australia now risks. But India still very health. Great Leopard Code Master Great Leopard, 06/17/2008 11:38:44 PM job pimpswhom to complain about exploitation by Job Consultant s, 06/18/2008 08:25:46 AM What did they do, s?What did they do, s? 5, 06/18/2008 08:51:39 AM Re: Economy ReportsThank you for the sharp and insightful comment GL Hunter, 06/18/2008 09:44:32 AM Doom and gloom a bogusAll i hear is doom and Gloom, Every one has been predicting this for years, the crash or recession of 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. Its the same old story, sure it has a bit of a down turn but it recovers quickly like the stock exchange. MC Macca, 06/18/2008 01:57:50 PM ExcellentI couldn't care less if the economy tanked. Unlike IT losers that are severely affected, doctors have an endless supply of patients and will no doubt be prescribing SSRI's to IT losers that won't be able to pay their bills :-) Gloomyshoes, 06/18/2008 02:08:42 PM "IT Losers"Gloomy,how could you say that? after all we've been through. brownie, 06/18/2008 02:23:37 PM Re: Excellentdr_suck is back! Socrates, 06/18/2008 03:01:23 PM Doom boyHunter welcome. Leopard always great economy wisdom. Dr Gloomy returns. Sure soon complain's for medical job. Customers visit with buttocks troubles. Reject by pretty nurse. Always dooms and gloom in gloomys land. Great Leopard, 06/18/2008 10:06:16 PM FFSGloomy... Mate... Get over it. Go post on the medical forums. You keep taking the threads off topic with your anti IT rants... And if you want to stick around and troll, try to be funnier. Consider taking lessons from GL. Dimes, 06/19/2008 08:46:46 AM On second thoughts......your bitterness is somewhat entertaining.... I take it back. Never leave us Gloomy. Dimes, 06/19/2008 08:49:47 AM Might become a doctorThinking of becoming a Doctor and Leave IT. There is money to be made from the carcase of the baby boomers. There all trying to breath there last breath, ill take there Money$$ since its more important than life. Cant wait.. MC macca, 06/19/2008 10:00:42 AM Hot tipFuneral Director. The overbearing Yanks tried to control the industry, they failed. Should be booming soon - too many baby boomers with bad habits and too much money. Their dopey kids will be hot on their tails. Withheld, 06/19/2008 10:52:31 AM Boom boom boomboxTotally agree with boomers needing attention (as per usual). Nurses might have a cr*p job now but wait a decade & they'll be very highly paid & regarded.....there certainly won't be enough of them to fill demand. Yep, recession is on the way - do boom and bust periods seem to be having less time between them these days? Every decade there's a cycle now..... I luv u gloomy Snu210, 06/19/2008 03:41:47 PM The simpsons"He's often admitted in the past, that predictions are unreliable, but his are as good as anyone's." This reminds me of a quote from the simpsons. "When your right 51% of the time, it also means that your wrong 49% of the time..." Any recession caused in the next year or two will be more caused as a result of speculation, than anything else. (even sub-prime). But remember the simpsons quote before listening to me... anon, 06/19/2008 04:40:51 PM
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